Cowboys @ Eagles · Philadelphia Eaglesbeat the close
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How the published plays did, cut every way: closing-line value by market, price, edge, kickoff and week; our chance against the result; and how the market moved on each play.
Closing-line value, cut every way 14 qualified closes of 22 published · 8 stale or unknown-age closes shown in the export, not counted
beat-close rate, with its 95% intervalline = 50%
By sport
| Beat close | Avg CLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1/14 * | -6.19% |
By market
| Beat close | Avg CLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Spreads | 1/11 * | -5.74% | |
| Totals | 0/3 * | -7.87% |
By price taken
| Beat close | Avg CLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| -120 or worse | 0/1 * | -1.45% | |
| -119 to -106 | 1/10 * | -6.52% | |
| -105 to +100 | 0/3 * | -6.70% |
By edge at publish
| Beat close | Avg CLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-5% | 0/6 * | -8.31% | |
| 5-8% | 1/8 * | -4.61% | |
| 8% and up | – | – |
By kickoff
| Beat close | Avg CLV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| early | 0/6 * | -7.49% | |
| afternoon | 0/4 * | -6.80% | |
| night | 1/4 * | -3.65% |
* fewer than 50 qualified closes: too few to call either way. A bar that straddles the 50% line has not shown anything yet.
By week average CLV of the plays with a qualified close
Edge against closing value one dot per play with a qualified close
beat the closedid not
Our chance against the result decided plays, by the chance we gave them
won, with 95% intervalour chance
Record flat 1 unit per play
| W-L-P | Units | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All plays | 10-12-0 | -2.89 | n<200 |
| NFL spreads | 10-5-0 | +4.11 | n<200 |
| NFL totals | 0-7-0 | -7.00 | n<200 |
ROI is units won per unit staked, pushes included (a push risked its stake too). It appears from 200 decided plays, with its interval; before that it is noise.
How the market moved the last 10 plays, open to close
marketour number○ published
Chiefs @ Seahawks · Seattle Seahawksdid not beat
Packers @ Lions · Green Bay Packersdid not beat
Cowboys @ Packers · Green Bay Packersdid not beat
Bills @ Raiders · Las Vegas Raidersdid not beat
Saints @ Giants · Underdid not beat
Panthers @ Eagles · Overdid not beat
Panthers @ Eagles · Philadelphia Eaglesdid not beat
Bears @ Falcons · Underdid not beat
Bears @ Falcons · Atlanta Falconsdid not beat