Rules and guidelines for success

The rules that keep the record honest. They hold on a losing week exactly as they do on a winning one.

Executionthe biggest lever, costs nothing

Bet the number on the card or better. If Hard Rock has moved half a point past it, skip. The edge lives in the number, not the team.
Bet at the alert, not at the hour. The Telegram push is the moment the edge exists. Hard Rock usually catches up within the hour.
Never bet off-card. An empty card is the model saying no. A hunch is not a betavenger bet: keep it out of the ledger so it cannot pollute the record.
Log the price you actually got. A bet at -112 is not a bet at -110. Closing line value is only real if the entry is real.
Stake exactly what the card says. Sizes are capped at 3% a bet, 5% a game, 20% a card. Doubling a favourite breaks the math for the whole card.
One account, boring amounts. Hard Rock limits winners. Round, repeated, modest stakes survive longer than one big swing.

One bankroll number, changed on a schedule. Reset monthly from the ledger. Never mid-week, never after a streak either way.
Paper until the gate. Live money only after the ledger shows we beat Pinnacle's closing line on more than half of 100+ picks. A hot start does not open the gate.
College is paper only. No validated college edge exists yet. Spreads of 14 or less are tracked; nothing is staked.
Never chase. No stake changes after a loss. The next bet is sized from the bankroll, not from the last result.

The scoreboard is closing line value, not wins. A coin flip wins half the time. Beating the close is the only thing a bettor controls. Win rate means nothing before 300 closed picks.
One CLV number, against Pinnacle. Every pick is measured against Pinnacle's closing line with the margin taken out (an offshore book only when Pinnacle has no close, shown apart and never counted toward the gate). A moved line is carried to our number, so a better number counts, not just a better price.
Every pick gets a closing line. The worker measures every pick from the stored line history after kickoff. A pick with no usable close is shown as unavailable, never as zero. The worker also copies the execution book’s closing price (or the consensus when it has none) onto each pick for the record (Awaiting the execution book’s close on the Ledger); that copy is not the CLV.

No public betting percentages, "sharp money" reports, or tout picks. Unverifiable and usually stale.
No parlays or same-game parlays. Correlated pricing is not validated.
No changing thresholds, weights or caps mid-season without a backtest and a commit message that carries the number.
No betting when the header says worker: no heartbeat. The numbers may be stale.
No pretending. If a rule got broken, log it. The ledger is only useful if it is true.

Tuesday. Glance at the board: early lines, few bets. The college SP+ snapshot lands.
Wednesday to Saturday morning. The alerts do the work. Bet at the alert if the number holds.
Saturday (college) and Sunday (NFL) morning. Open the board once more, confirm every card bet still matches Hard Rock, then stop looking.
Monday. Ledger. Read the CLV and how many picks are unavailable, ignore the record.
First of the month. Reset the bankroll number, run refit, read the proposals, change nothing without a backtest.